With the conclusion of Week 9, each team now has at least eight fixtures in the books. Which means we've officially passed the halfway point of the season. What better time to reflect on where we stand and where we are likely to go through the back half of Major League Rugby's 2021 season?
Where We Stand
Where We're Going
Given just how crowded the playoff chase remains, predictions are difficult. But we're going to try.
First the west.
Austin have arguably their most critical two weeks on deck. In a rare Wednesday clash, they will be hosting the Cocktail Bowl down in Texas. Ten days later, they travel to Zions Bank to take on Utah. It's a brutal back-to-back, but could also be a huge opportuniuty. They're hosting LA in the Southern heat on only three days rest. Applying that creamsicle wall defense to a weary LA side could be just the thing for dialing up another Giltini loss. Then, followed by a ten day rest to prepare for Utah, Austin could very well sweep this crucial series.
After that, Austin will only face one team currently over .500 for the rest of the year - the rematch in LA. Utah, on the other hand, will face five over .500 teams in their final eight contests. They also catch Seattle in Starfire, which is always a more challenging beast. Given that scheduling, and that Austin are today a point ahead of Utah, I am ready to make a prediction.
It is a Gil-sweep of playoff spots in the west.
Now the east. Oh the east. Yes, the east.
It's not exactly a six-way tie for first. But it's close. Atlanta are the leaders after Week 9, but their 26 table points are only four points ahead of fourth place Toronto. New York, in second with 24 points, could theoretically be in last by next week. That's how close it all is.
Atlanta's schedule won't be easy. Next two weeks entail a cross-country trip to Seattle and then hosting the Giltini buzzsaw. Both could conceivably be losses. Then it's down to NOLA and up to New York (who already beat them). An expectation that Atlanta lose three of their next four would be reasonable.
New York have a bit of an easier schedule, with five of their last seven opponents under .500. They'll need it though, as they've only managed a paltry four bonus points. That's fewest in the conference and tied with Seattle for fewest in the league.
NOLA have only two more home games, both in the next two weeks and against tough opposition (Utah and Atlanta). They'll need a run of road victories to see this season through to a succesful conclusion. A finale in New York (ahem New Jersey) could very well be a playoff decider for both.
Toronto may have the friendliest schedule, if a team permantly housed in a foreign country can have a friendly schedule. They are "home" for their big remaining conference clashes, including NOLA and New York in the second half of June. But having fallen off the lead pace, Toronto can ill afford any hiccups.
New England have a tough remaining schedule, with only Seattle at home seeming like a comfortable win prediction. At least most of their remaining fixtures are home.
Old Glory, who barely escaped hosting Seattle this week, have a lot of winnable matches but have a lot of teams to pass to stay in the hunt. Their destiny is not in their own hands and they'll need some serious stumbling from the top to kit up for the knock out rounds.
So difficult to call. But looking at the schedules remaining and current form, I am ready to make a prediction.
I foresee an incredibly close race that features a three way dead-heat between Toronto, NOLA and New York going to the last week. In the end, New York and Toronto with the easier schedules will sneak into the playoffs.